Marvel Rivals: The Road to Success
Marvel Rivals launched only a few weeks ago with the initial player count peaking around 500,000 on Steam. For a live service game, this is in the top percentile of launch numbers. It surpassed that of the Avengers game by a wide margin, but without proper support it could suffer the same fate. Let’s dive into what a live service game needs to succeed.
Presence. This can be defined by the staying power of the brand. Marvel has been declining in popularity since End Game back in 2019. It felt like a penultimate climax for the films and most people fell off afterwards. Fans of the comics and games aren’t as plentiful, but they are arguably more invested in the brand than the general public. The player count proves that Marvel has enough recognition to garner a respectable level of interest, but to satiate those players and keep them returning, they’ll need to ensure their name remains present in their minds.
Content. This is the name of the game. Live service games need constant updates to introduce new elements or they get stale. Marvel has a deep well of characters to pull from, but they’ll need to release them frequently enough to keep players invested. For hero shooters, characters are arguably the most important piece of the puzzle. They need to work well with one another and carve out their own identities. Rivals currently has 33 characters to choose from at launch, which is a substantial offering right off the bat. This is over double that of Overwatch and Concord at release. Given this, they don’t need to update the game immediately as many players have likely not played as each character yet. Generally, it would be best to have a character or two each season. According to the roadmap video released by NetEase, seasons for Rivals will be 3 months after season 0 concludes. With a season this long, two characters and a map should be sufficient to keep players engaged. It may not be necessary for the first season as players are still finding their mains and getting used to the maps, but a cadence like this would help keep them invested for the long haul.
Monetization. Another point that can be the nail in the coffin for these types of games. Marvel Rivals is free-to-play which means it has a battlepass and skins available for purchase. Rivals does allow for progression of a purchased battlepass at any time, similar to how Halo Infinite and Helldivers 2 treated theirs. Skins are priced similar to industry standards and though the art for these are usually references to other versions of the characters, the abilities remain unchanged. This isn’t inherently bad as it’s important for hero shooters to have readability in character abilities and silhouettes. It’s arguable that some of the skins obscure this, but most of the character’s identity remains intact across their costumes. The in-game currency is split between three different sources, but one is only for battlepass progression (similar to Fortnite). Lattice is the purchasable currency which, to use, needs to be converted into units. It’s a one to one ratio and lattice can be bought in quantities as low as 100, so instead of having a weird number left over after a purchase, it’s possible to purchase the exact amount needed for a skin. This isn’t common in live service games and is a very “consumer first” way to monetize. The battlepass system does incentivize paying for the “luxury” version as progression is fairly slow with the basic version. This can change with time however, so it’s not as much of a concern currently.
Overall NetEase did a great job with the release of Marvel Rivals. Marvel is still popular enough to garner a respectable audience in 2024, but to carry this momentum throughout 2025, they’ll need to ensure people don’t forget about the game. There will need to be a steady stream of new content (characters and maps) as well as more “consumer first” monetization and progression rewards. Ranked mode already exists within the game, so those that strive for a competitive experience will be able to play with glory on the line, while others can be satiated by solid gameplay and new characters to try. There’s a balance to these kinds of games and their longevity is determined by how much support the developer is willing to give. Only time will tell if it will succeed where so many have failed, but things are looking good so the future seems bright.
